Breeders' Cup 2023 Saturday Analysis
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1)
| 1. Stage Raider | Cherie DeVaux | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 15-1 |
| 2. Practical Move | Tim Yakteen | Ramon Vazquez | SCRATCHED |
| 3. Cody’s Wish | Bill Mott | Junior Alvarado | 9-5 |
| 4. Zozos | Brad Cox | Florent Geroux | 6-1 |
| 5. Charge It | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 5-1 |
| 6. Skippylongstocking | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Tyler Gaffalione | 12-1 |
| 7. Algiers | Simon Crisford | James Doyle | 6-1 |
| 8. Shirl’s Bee | Dallas Stewart | Luis Saez | 20-1 |
| 9. National Treasure | Bob Baffert | Flavien Prat | 8-1 |
The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile kicks off Championship proceedings and has become a complete penalty kick for Cody’s Wish (USA) with the sad loss of Practical Move (USA) and Algiers (IRE) scratching due to inflammation.
A number of pundits have tried to promote Zozos (USA) as a trendy alternative to the short priced star to nick it off the front. A somewhat laughable proposition when considering the complete dearth of performance level from the Munnings colt in comparison to Godolphin’s boy; A Zozos (USA) career best performance rating of 102 pails in comparison to the 119 inked by Bill Mott’s colt at Belmont this year. In fact, Zozos best (and only performance rating over the ton) has fell foul of the level Cody’s Wish has set in 2 of his last 9 starts. The difference in quality is astounding – and that is without comparing the pair’s speed difference which is more grim reading for Zozos (USA) supporters.
If any, the problem for Cody’s Wish (USA) will come in the form of National Treasure (USA) who, by all accounts, is going very well and has a great shot – but even he could be beaten without Cody’s Wish needing to be at his best. On the other hand, Charge It (USA) of last year would pose a serious threat but six runs in 2023 would suggests he doesn’t have it in him anymore.
Horses over four years old have a negative expectation in this race relative to their entry share, though despite that we should be seeing a great send off for the excellent story and with Cody in the house, I’m sure the Curlin colt will bring his best to convert.
1-2-3: Cody’s Wish, National Treasure, Charge It.
Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf (G1)
| 1. In Italian | Chad Brown | Joel Rosario | 4-1 |
| 2. Warm Heart | Aidan O’Brien | Ryan Moore | 3-1 |
| 3. With The Moonlight | Charlie Appleby | William Buick | 20-1 |
| 4. Moira | Kevin Attard | Flavien Prat | 12-1 |
| 5. Win Marilyn | Takahisa Tezuka | Cristian Demuro | 20-1 |
| 6. Inspiral | John and Thady Gosden | Frankie Dettori | 5-2 |
| 7. Lindy | Brendan Walsh | Tyler Gaffalione | 12-1 |
| 8. Fev Rover | Mark Casse | Javier Castellano | 8-1 |
| 9. Didia | Ignacio Correas | Vincent Cheminaud | 8-1 |
| 10. McKulick | Chad Brown | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 15-1 |
| 11. Lumiere Rock | Joseph O’Brien | Dylan McMonagle | 12-1 |
| 12. State Occasion | Ralph Beckett | Rossa Ryan | 20-1 |
European horses have the edge in the Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf (G1) this year, with the overall historical split of the race being even but this years’ renewal being run over 10 furlongs – something which is far more common to the European raiders than their American counterparts. Compound that with Euro raiders taking 5 of the 8 editions at Santa Anita, the away team stand are in good stead.
They are represented by two standout out fillies in Inspiral and Warm Heart (IRE). The first of which sets the standard for the race and a very high one at that. She will be stepping up to 10f from her usual miler campaign in which she has been so dominant. The latter is coming back in trip from 12f to 10f and was last seen winning the Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes (Listed) at Newbury towards the start of the season. The advantage in the distance change undoubtedly goes to Inspiral, who has an easier tasks queezing an extra two furlongs out on a fast Santa Anita surface with a race start on a downhill slope - as opposed to Warm Heart (IRE) trying to find the extra pace that, when missing, saw her step up in trip to 12f.
Despite the slight statistical disadvantage, the home team have a great representative in last year’s second placed In Italian coming into the race in fine form. She produced career best speed and performance figures of 115 and 114 respectively in last years renewal over 9.5 furlongs and is well placed to execute her favoured wire run style from the #1 spot. That said, she will need to be at her best to topple the standard setter Inspiral, and Inspiral will need to be average or below to become vulnerable to either In Italian or Warm Heart.
Inspiral is also getting her favourite conditions, in which she produced a speed rating of 120 at Ascot last year when demolishing the field in the Coronation Stakes (G1). She also has her partner in crime, Frankie Dettori, in the best of form and off the back of a Trawlerman masterclass when it counted on Champions Day; she couldn’t be in better hands.
With it Inspiral’s to lose, expect to see a cracking run from Didia (ARG) – a win machine who comes into the race off the back of a great prep at the track in Santa Anita’s Rodeo Drive Stakes (G2). She has good enough speed and performance figures to justify including her underneath at 8/1. Her trainer, Ignacio Correas IV, knows how to ready one for the Breeders’ Cup too (see Blue Prize (ARG))
Inspiral is the best bet of BC 2023
Exacta : Inspiral/Didia
Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint (G1) 7f
| 1. Goodnight Olive | Chad Brown | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 6-5 |
| 2. Clearly Unhinged | Michael McCarthy | Umberto Rispoli | 12-1 |
| 3. Eda | Bob Baffert | Juan Hernandez | 10-1 |
| 4. Matareya | Brad Cox | Flavien Prat | 6-1 |
| 5. Kirstenbosch | John Sadler | Hector Berrios | 10-1 |
| 6. Meikei Yell | Hidenori Take | Kenichi Ikezoe | 15-1 |
| 7. Society | Steve Asmussen | Tyler Gaffalione | 5-2 |
| 8. Three Witches | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Luis Saez | 30-1 |
| 9. Yuugiri | Rodolphe Brisset | Ricardo Santana Jr. | 8-1 |
Goodnight Olive (USA) is a fair favourite in this one and comes into the race off a career best performance when trailing Echo Zulu (USA) home at Saratoga. She posted a speed figure of 112, which ranks the best in the race; Society (USA) trails by a pound with 109 from her Ellis Park demolition and you have to go a long way back to February to find Matareya (USA) inking a speed figure anywhere near that with 108 when she bullied a field of four others at Fair Grounds. Since then, the Godolphin filly is yet to break the ton threshold and is some way below Goodnight Olive’s general performance figure level – so it would be remiss to suggest she could compete with her at a price.
Eda (USA) (105 at Del Mar in August) and Kirstenbosch (USA) (102 at Santa Anita last time out) have shown they can hit a respectable level, but will need to improve some way to be sure they can knock off either Goodnight Olive (USA) or Society (USA). The latter of which has triggered trust issues with tremendously erratic performance levels – though her trainer Steve Asmussen has somewhat allayed those issues with reports of how fast - ‘effortlessly fast’ – she has been in training recently. She also comes in with a positive profile for the race in that she has had a lay off of over two months – something which has proven to be beneficial in the race.
The rest of the field leave a lot left to be desired bar the relative unknown in the Japanese contender – whos run at Sha Tin in the Honk Kong Sprint would put her in the mix here. Irad on board Goodnight Olive (USA) definitely gets her over the line in opposition to Society (USA) for a single win bet and use Meikei Yell (JPN) at a big price.
Box exacta: Goodnight Olive (USA), Society (USA), Meikei Yell (JPN).
Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1)
| 1. Shirl’s Speight | Roger Attfield | John Velazquez | 30-1 |
| 2. Gina Romantica | Chad Brown | Tyler Gaffalione | 12-1 |
| 3. Casa Creed | Bill Mott | Luis Saez | 8-1 |
| 4. Win Carnelian | Yuichi Shinto | Kosei Miura | 30-1 |
| 5. Lucky Score | Mark Casse | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 30-1 |
| 6. Mawj | Saeed bin Suroor | Oisin Murphy | 4-1 |
| 7. Masteroffoxhounds | Phil D’Amato | Edwin Maldonado | 30-1 |
| 8. Du Jour | Bob Baffert | Flavien Prat | 15-1 |
| 9. Astronomer | Simon Callaghan | Ryan Moore | 20-1 |
| 10. Songline | Toru Hayashi | Keita Tosaki | 5-2 |
| 11. Kelina | Carlos Laffon-Paria | Maxime Guyon | 6-1 |
| 12. Exaulted | Peter Eurton | Juan Hernandez | 20-1 |
| 13. More Than Looks | Cherie DeVaux | Joel Rosario | 15-1 |
| 14. Master of the Seas | Charlie Appleby | William Buick | 7-2 |
The Breeders’ Cup Mile threatens to be the best race on the card. Numerous angles of attack.
It plays host to who some may argue is the best 3yo filly this year, Mawj (IRE). She is joined by her Godolphin teammate Master Of The Seas (IRE). Japanese raider Win Carnelian (JPN), top French prospect Kelina (IRE) and reigning Yasuda Kinen (G1) Champion Songline (JPN) line up to complete the rest of the world representation.
Master Of The Seas (IRE) sets the standard with a speed figure of 119 from the Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (G1) at Ascot in July, but was rather unfortunate to draw a grim gate in 14. That said, he has previously show he possesses a turn of foot which will go some way to negate the troubles of the car park draw.
On the other hand, Mawj (IRE) is set up perfectly to get her favourable run style in #6 and should be tough to catch down the short home stretch at Santa Anita should she get her running. She has the greatest upside, having recorded a 118 speed figure despite having set backs in her preparation throughout the season and, according to Saeed bin Suroor, there have been no problems this time so she should be in great shape to produce a career best performance off the back of a lovely prep at Keeneland. Anything eclipsing that 118 figure will be hard to beat.
Songline (JPN) is a fast ground merchant and back-to-back winner of a top class Japanese Group One; she has every chance and will probably go undervalued in the market. Casa Creed (USA) boasts the most consistent performance level on figures in the race with back to back 112 speed figures in her last two starts.
Kelina (IRE) has looked well in the week but needs to be treated with caution given she has not been tried on better than good ground and it is getting rattling fast at the track this weekend. Master Of The Seas (IRE) performance last time out left a lot to be desired, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory despite getting the run of the race. On the other hand, Mawj (IRE) ran well without taking too much out of the tank and looks to be on the way to her best.
The Americans aren’t without a chance and Bob Baffert trainee Du Jour (USA) poses a threat off the back of a 110 speed figure when winning at at Del Mar last time out. Exhaulted (USA) also boasts 110 having trailed home Du Jour (USA).
Mawj win @ 4/1
1-2-3: Mawj, Songline, Casa Creed.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) 1m 1/8th
| 1. Hoosier Philly | Tom Amoss | Luis Saez | 20-1 |
| 2. A Mo Reay | Brad Cox | Christophe Lemaire | 20-1 |
| 3. Pretty Mischievous | Brendan Walsh | Tyler Gaffalione | 8-1 |
| 4. Idiomatic | Brad Cox | Florent Geroux | 5-2 |
| 5. Adare Manor | Bob Baffert | Juan Hernandez | 4-1 |
| 6. Search Results | Chad Brown | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 5-1 |
| 7. Wet Paint | Brad Cox | Flavien Prat | 10-1 |
| 8. Randomized | Chad Brown | Jose Ortiz | 6-1 |
| 9. Clairiere | Steve Asmussen | Joel Rosario | 4-1 |
| 10. Desert Dawn | Phil D’Amato | Hector Berrios | 20-1 |
| 11. Le Da Vida | Ignacio Correas | Vincent Cheminaud | 20-1 |
Idiotmatic (USA) boasts the best figures in the race and ultimately sets the standard for the race which is no shock given she is short-priced favourite at 7/4 best in the UK. The US ML of 5-2 may prove more fruitful (and accurate) given the home support for Bob Baffert’s Adare Manor (USA), who sits at 4/1 generally in the market.
Idiomatic (USA) is a fair favourite and it is hers to lose, having posted performance figures some six pounds (106) better than those of Adare Manor (USA) (100) on their last two starts.
The market, however, doesn’t convey how open the race is with other fillies in the race achieving a performance rating of 104 or above; those include Clariere (USA), Randomized (USA), and Search Results (USA).
The last of which has a knack of peaking on her fifth run of the season and she has taken to the track four times this year, most recently producing a career best 105 when winning in commanding fashion at Churchill Downs over 8.5f.
Randomized (USA) is an improving filly and underrated on the US ML, let alone a price of 8/1 in the UK given the context that she has posted improving 103 and 104 figures in her last two starts at 10f and 9f respectively. In the first of which, she inked a 103 speed figure and as a result likely possesses the highest ceiling in the race.
Clariere (USA) returns again but has not shown anything better than the level that landed her 3rd place in last year's renewal, while Pretty Mischievous (USA) will need to improve some 5lb to be challenging for a win and her Godolphin team-mate Wet Paint (USA) faces a tougher task having not broke the ton mark in performance figures since September 2022.
Search Results (USA) provides the best value at 5/1, with Randomized (USA) close up at 8/1.
1-2-3: Search Results (USA), Idiomatic (USA), Randomized (USA).
Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) 1m 4f
| 1. Shahryar | Hideaki Fujiwara | Cristian Demuro | 15-1 |
| 2. Onesto | Fabrice Chappet | Maxime Guyon | 8-1 |
| 3. Gold Phoenix | Phil D’Amato | Juan Hernandez | 30-1 |
| 4. Bolshoi Ballet | Aidan O’Brien | John Velazquez | 15-1 |
| 5. Auguste Rodin | Aidan O’Brien | Ryan Moore | 3-1 |
| 6. Get Smokin | Mark Casse | Fernando de la Cruz | SCRATCHED |
| 7. Broome | Aidan O’Brien | Dylan McMonagle | 30-1 |
| 8. Up to the Mark | Todd Pletcher | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 5-1 |
| 9. Mostahdaf | John and Thady Gosden | Jim Crowley | 5-2 |
| 10. Adhamo | Chad Brown | Flavien Prat | 30-1 |
| 11. King of Steel | Roger Varian | Frankie Dettori | 4-1 |
| 12. Balladeer | George Papaprodromou | Victor Espinoza | 30-1 |
| 13. War Like Goddess | Bill Mott | Junior Alvarado | 12-1 |
The Breeders’ Cup Turf sees Mostahdaf (IRE) attempt a hat-trick of Group 1 wins this season in the premier middle-distance races on the turf calendar. He should be the favourite as the standard setter on figures, having posted back-to-back 119 speed figures in the Champions Stakes (Group 1) and the Juddmonte International (Group 1) respectively.
Auguste Rodin (IRE) sits just shy with a speed figure of 113 last time out and a performance rating of 118, which would appeal to many if he was not partial to throwing in an appalling performance once in a while with no creditable excuse to explain it away. In fact, his stablemate is the better option of the pair at their respective prices; he comes in to this off the back of a career best run at Saratoga and should be fancied to have a crack at the frame at 15/1.
Up To The Mark (USA) knocked off Master Of The Seas (IRE) last time out which was impressive having had trouble in running, but sits some way below rightful favourite Mostahdaf (IRE) at a PB 109 speed figure. King Of Steel (IRE) possesses the class to mix it with the Gosden trainee but comes into the race off the back a very tough run at Ascot a short time before globetrotting to Santa Anita for a short working holiday; it has to take it’s toll.
Onesto (IRE) is a classy colt but is 0-1 on better than good ground and this will be on the tougher end of fast for a horse well acquainted with cut in the ground. This is a case of keeping things single and taking the best horse in the race, who runs excellently when fresh.
Mostahdaf (IRE) win @ 5/2 (3-1 UK)
Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1)
| 1. Arcangelo | Jena Antonucci | Javier Castellano | SCRATCHED |
| 2. Zandon | Chad Brown | Frankie Dettori | 12-1 |
| 3. White Abarrio | Rick Dutrow Jr. | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 4-1 |
| 4. Missed The Cut | John Sadler | Luis Saez | 30-1 |
| 5. Derma Sotogake | Hidetaka Otonashi | Christophe Lemaire | 20-1 |
| 6. Saudi Crown | Brad Cox | Florent Geroux | 12-1 |
| 7. Clapton | Chad Summers | Tyler Gaffalione | 20-1 |
| 8. Ushba Tesoro | Noboru Takagi | Yuga Kawada | 4-1 |
| 9. Senor Buscador | Todd Fincher | Geovanni Franco | 30-1 |
| 10. Dreamlike | Todd Pletcher | Jose Ortiz | 30-1 |
| 11. Bright Future | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 10-1 |
| 12. Arabian Knight | Bob Baffert | Flavien Prat | 3-1 |
| 13. Proxy | Michael Stidham | Joel Rosario | 12-1 |
A minefield of a Classic. White Abbario (USA) comes into the race in fine – if not too good to be true (having posted a performance rating 10lbs above his previous best last time out) – form for Rick Dutrow after a stable switch two starts back.
Arabian Knight (USA) has gained favouritism through the scratch of Arcangelo (USA) but appears to be continuously supported after drawing the wide gate that may allow him to execute as a pace horse.
Ushba Tesoro (JPN) provides the best chance of a Japanese winner to date and can extend his winning streak if he handles the day. He brings an impressive CV and a six race winning streak to Santa Anita – most recently winning the Dubai World Cup last year with top level figures in a performance rating of 118 and a speed figure of 112.
On the same card - but over slightly further in the UAE Derby – fellow compatriot Derma Sotogake (JPN) dominated at Meydan with a speed and performance figure of 117. Any replication of that would be hard to beat but the Meydan dirt is generally more conducive to big performances. The Mind Your Biscuits colt has since produced average figures of 107 for speed and 101 performance before a long break until the Classic. That said, he is completely ignored in the market at 30-1 and given the ceiling achieved at Meydan, should be considered underneath.
Saudi Crown (USA) is the relative unknown of the field and will need to improve – though he has plenty of room – to win this competitive renewal. Clapton (USA) and Senor Buscador (USA) have a long way to go to match the main protagonists and will need all the luck along with ex-George Boughey trainee Missed The Cut (USA).
Ushba Tesoro (JPN) sets the standard on figures and Arabian Knight (USA) will need to revisit the massive Keeneland performance on the undercard of last years Breeders’ Cup to get on level terms with the Japanese raider, While White Abarrio (USA) will likely be disadvantaged to some extent with the pace horses coming from outside him which is a considerable negative.
The first for Japan.
Ushba Tesoro @ 4/1
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1)
Single win on Live The Dream
Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1)
Single win on Elite Power