Breeders’ Cup Draw Analysis
Monday’s draw threw up one of the most intriguing set ups in the centrepiece Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) to add to an already fascinating line-up in one of the most anticipated renewals of the modern era.
Europe’s best turf horse and Coolmore’s seventh starter in the race – City Of Troy - got an adverse draw in stall three, with the likely pace of the race Arthur’s Ride looking to go forward from stall 12. Things don’t improve for the Irish raider with pace either side of him in Highland Falls in #2 and more importantly a wire running style horse in Mixto out of #4. While prominent Japanese contender Forever Young won’t be too dejected being stuffed with the #1 spot; he was able to run into a bit of kickback in the early stages of the Japan Dirt Classic but this will be his biggest test to date in that regard.
Fierceness may get locked into a battle with Arthur’s Ride going forwards or may have to face a tougher trip than he would otherwise enjoy – something that will undoubtedly test his mental frailties exhibited earlier in his career. Trainer Todd Pletcher appears to think those days are behind him and is confident the outside draw is the spot for his colt, while the most tested by the draw has to be City Of Troy who is almost certain to get a face full of dirt or experience an extreme speed endurance test after breaking the best of the lot.
Elsewhere, Aesterius (IRE) is set up well in the Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) with post position #2 and should he get out with the speed he is capable of – the contenders outside him such as Big Mojo in #3, Arizona Blaze in #5, and Whistlejacket in #7 will have a very tough time breaking the mentally strong colt down off at the front of affairs. Japanese raider Ecoro Sieg will come out of #8 with a 23 year old track record in his back pocket from his final prep run.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) will see pace come from all over the shop with Vodka With A Twist out of #1, Nooni in #8 and La Cara in #4. This almost certainly will see the unbeaten Immersive have a tougher trip than her last start in the Alcibiades, but she has overcome worse and saluted with a tougher trip from the #1 spot in the Spinaway (G1) on her second start.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) had little if any hard luck stories with the draw, though Aidan O’Brien’s filly Lake Victoria could find trouble if boxed in with pace coming from the outside with Totally Justified in #5, Though Process in the #7 spot, and Heaven’s Gate out in #8.
Similarly with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), East Avenue has the chance to break well from 1 and execute his wire run style but could be in trouble if he doesn’t break well with the speedy Getaway Car in stall #2 and some decent pace outside of him.
Friday’s nightcap - the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) – on the other hand, will be more looks to be more of a muddled affair in terms of pace so they positive/negatives of the draw are somewhat undetermined.
Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint (G1) has a pretty uncomplicated set up as a result of the draw, where as the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) sees Bradsell in a fair bit of trouble out of gate #12 but his main competition in Cogburn will also be a little disadvantaged from spot #9. Big Evs has also been given somewhat of a wild task out of post position #11, given his run style. There are some big prices on the inside and they may well prove decent value given how the draw has shaken out.
Kenny McPeek gave the thumbs up for Thorpedo Anna drawing the #2 spot in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) and is perfectly placed to convert as one of the best backed short-priced favourites. Similarly, there were no huge issues in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).
Ignacio Correas IV appeared to be pleased with Didia (ARG) taking post position #5 in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) and she should be able to execute her race from that position with the lone pace in the race – Full Count Felicia – looking to lead out of stall #2.
On the other hand, Correas IV looked less than pleased when Mufasa drew the #12 in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), while the T O Saint Denis (JPN) crew didn’t enjoy being drawn at the other end in #2 – though there is conjecture over whether he will run anyway. Saudi Crown landed on his feet in #1 and should be able to get out quick to control as he likes, which he will surely be challenged by Full Seranno (ARG) in #3 among other speed that is drawn a little wider.
In the Breeders Cup Mile (G1), Carl Spackler got the rough end of the stick with #12 and it should be interesting to see how Ramatuelle deals with the #1 spot down the other end.
Finally, Raging Torrent copped a rough slot in #1 for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) with tonnes of speed and prominent leaning run styles outside him – in particular Federal Judge in #3, Straight No Chaser #8, Skelly #11, Don Frankie #5, and Bentornato #6. It could be carnage.