Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
The domestic contingent is weaker than ever this year despite them taking four of the seven editions of this race. Big Evs stuck it to them last year and the same connections go again in this one with Big Mojo – who is similarly speedy but arguably less polished than last year’s champ. He has already fell foul of #2 Aesterius this season with the pair trading blows in the Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) where Big Mojo landed the upset at 25/1 and more recently in the Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) where Aesterius showed a great mental fortitude to hold off the Mick Appleby trainee.
Whistlejacket and Ides Of March represent Aidan O’Brien with the former coming into this off the back of a four length drubbing over 6f in the Middle Park Stakes on soft ground. He favours ground with a bit of cut in it with his best speed and performance figures coming at Deauville over 6f. He certainly has a stamina edge over some of the other European sprinters and sets the standard with the highest ceiling in both speed and performance figures, but is yet to show he will really enjoy a fast race on what will be a quick track when he doesn’t get the race his own way as he has in many of his successful performances – so the support to make him joint third in the market is interesting.
Ides Of March has had it easy so far in his career, with what some would argue are glorified racecourse gallops on his last two starts – though he has produced good sectional projections of 106 and 108 in those 6f victories respectively. You would think he will need to fulfil them and more to hit the frame in this one.
Arizona Blaze hasn’t landed a significant blow since winning the 6f GAIN Marble Hill Stakes (Group 3) in late May at the Curragh but he has an experience edge over the majority of the field while still holding some form and actually producing his best figures when behind Babouche and Whistlejacket (IRE) in the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes.
Shareholder once had the metal over all but one of the aforementioned contenders when winning the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. He flopped in the Morny at Deauville since but Karl Burke reckons he has him in as good of form as he did pre-Royal Ascot – though he would need a marked improvement from those speed and performance figures of 93 and 97, but the comments have staved off a big red line being put through his name.
Ecoro Sieg (USA) offers an interesting angle from Japan, having broken a 20 year-old record in his last prep – the Canna Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse. While it is impressive, Japanese racing tends to excel over the lengthier trips and therefore one would assume the less emphasis put on sprinting trips would lead to less robust record times due to the less deep sprinting cohorts. A track record is not to be sniffed at, however.
Aesterius is well drawn to be placed well for a run style to suit and the mental fortitude he showcased last time out gives him the edge over leading contenders Whistlejacket – who will not have it all his own way this time – and Big Mojo. Karl Burke’s Shareholder is one to land in the frame at a decent price given we will take the trainer’s confidence at face value.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) 1m 1/16th
An enthralling betting clash, Scottish Lassie and Immersive lock horns at the top of the market. The first of which sets the standard on our speed figures and the latter an undefeated homebred filly out of the master-training Brad Cox stable.
Immersive has shown she can run her tracking style race in both kick back and sitting out of it and exhibited a particularly impressive attitude when winning the Spinaway (Grade 1) – we have seen many a horse quit when getting a trip like hers.
Scottish Lassie is benefitted, however, by the pace inside her with American Bikini in #9 Nooni in #8 and La Cara in #4 which almost ensures her a decent slot to produce her stalking run style – provided she is not kept too wide.
The pair will need to keep tabs on the pace in the race, however, with front end speed able to hold up on this particularly short home stretch on the dirt track.
Vodka With A Twist brings a consistently high (relative) performance level to the table with 103 and 102 speed figures in the Sorrento (Grade 3) and Del Mar Debutante (Grade 1) but a long break since – relative to the traditional prep routes for the race – adds to the pessimism drawn (pardon the pun) by getting stuffed from the #1 slot with more likely pace outside.
The co-favourites are very fair and, if any, an edge can be given to Immersive as a result of the consistent tough winning standard.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) 1m
Aidan O’Brien brings next year’s 1000 Guineas favourite Lake Victoria with what has to be a bigger class advantage than what Meditate had over the field in the 2022 renewal at Santa Anita. She sits 7lbs better than the next best domestic contender on speed figures and 3lb better than her stablemate Heaven’s Gate (achieved in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot) – though she has since dropped off that level in her ensuing four starts.
The question is whether this class advantage can pay dividends in a race that the European raiders have a historically poor record in; winning just three of the sixteen renewals.
The thorn in the Europeans side – Chad Brown – having won six of the sixteen runnings, including five of the last nine only saddles one in the race (Virgin Colada) at double figure odds. This time, Mark Casse provides the stiffest competition in Vixen and Nitrogen, who finished second and third in the important Natalama Stakes (Grade 1).
The latter going forward from stall #2 will surely put Ryan Moore in a position to do some of his best work in getting out of a trouble and ensuring a decent trip for his filly. She will likely be the pace to aim at for stablemate Vixen – who really doesn’t have figures to write home about but is on the improve.
May Day Ready looks to be great value at a massive price (28/1 UK), having produced a career best in the Jessamine (which has produced two of the last 7 winners) that boasts the second-best speed figure of the domestics behind Little Red Feather Racing’s Thought Process and Abientot. There is a lot to like about the Phil D’Amato trainee and she has a peach draw to kick off her jaunt at the title and should, indeed, feature. Abientot, on the other hand, doesn’t appear to have the stamina required.
With the talking heads labelling Lake Victoria a potentially vulnerable short-priced favourite and the trends against Euros, punters have the opportunity to - in all likeliness - take one of the best European contenders ever sent to the race at odds-against. Granted, the draw is not ideal but with one of the world’s best pilots on her back she should have the capability to manoeuvre out of potentially tough spots and land the spoils with a couple of the domestics in tow; Thought Process and May Day Ready.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) 1m 1/16th
A cracking renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), East Avenue brings in elite level figures having posted a speed figure of 122 when winning the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. Any improvement on that performance level would surely see him wrap up the race from the #1 slot – which undoubtedly will suit his preferred run style.
Chancer McPatrick may have something to say about that, however, and boasts a 116 speed rating from his second start. He’s also kept a perfect record, similar to Jonathan’s Way – who is going in the right direction but is yet to reach the heights of the top two in the market in his two unbeaten starts.
Ferocious is unlikely to knock off the top two, having already been beaten favourite behind them on his last two starts. He does, however, offer some value playing underneath with consistently good (4th best in the field) speed figures of 112-114-112 from his three starts to date.
Bob Baffert comes in mob handed with three entries, two of which you would assume could be used to crack the Godolphin homebred in favour of Citizen Bull – with the most likely candidate being Getaway Car. Gaming has 116 to his name but is up against it with only three winners in 40 renewals being able to stretch to the distance off the back of solely sprinting. The same can be said for Ecoro Azel.
Nothing surprising here but we’ll take East Avenue to get it done over Chancer McPatrick and Ferocious.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) 1m
The Europeans have the metal over the domestics in this one; they lead by a dominant five in the 17 editions to date (11-6) which includes bagging the last three. They have had a small sample of the total starters (29%) but have accounted for the majority of winners; they are succeeding far over expectation.
The boys in blue bring two and will look to land the spoils again at Del Mar following Modern Games’ 2021 victory in strange circumstances. They are well placed to do so with Aamori City and Al Qudra. The first of which sets the standard on figures with a 110 to his name when winning the Vintage Stakes (Group 2) at Goodwood. Dropped back to a more average level in the Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Group 1) with a fourth placed effort.
Henry Matisse finished ahead of him (2nd) and Seagulls Eleven (3rd) on the day – though he still fluffed his lines and was beaten as odds-on favourite. Nevertheless his speed figure from the day lands him second in the ranks for Friday’s contest.
Al Qudra sits just shy in third with 107 from his Pat Eddery Stakes (Listed) victory in the summer. That day he got the better of New Century, who returned the favour last time out in the bet365 Summer Stakes (Grade 1) at Woodbine – also landing a 107 in the process.
Al Qudra has the better of the draw and therefore the likely better trip than his adversary and looks the pick to reverse the form at least with New Century.
Of the domestics, Iron Man Cal will need to improve some 5lb to have a look in to hit the frame while Mentee is trying to stretch out after showing his best at sprint trips (105 speed rating) and it is merely a case of whether he can stay the distance as the latent talent was apparent in his 6f Futurity win.
Satono Carnaval is somewhat of an interesting unknown but is less likely to trouble the top Euros, while Seagulls Eleven and The Waco Kid don’t quite cut it on the figures relative to their UK/IRE peers. Al Qudra has done his best work in similar conditions and with a projection of 108, he looks like the pick with a better trip than he got in Canada.
Aidan O’Brien entries have to be respected given his history in the race and a fulfilment of a 113 projection from the Curragh would put Henri Matisse top of the lot – but he has to overcome a tough draw and its fair to suggest he’s more likely to be following Al Qudra in as a result. For all that, he should be part of a saving exacta.