Breeders' Cup 2024 Saturday Analysis

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) 7f

This appears to be a pretty average renewal without a standout like Goodnight Olive for the past two years. As a result, it is pretty wide open and we may well see an upset here.

Society sets the standard for this year’s renewal with 109 speed figure to her name from her 10 length demolition of the field at Ellis Park last year. Her top from two starts this year, however, is 102.

Ways And Means comes into the race in the form of her life, off the back of a four-length victory in the Gallant Bloom Stakes (Grade 2) and Chad Brown has clearly worked out she does her best work round one turn – where she is three from three most recently. Her tactical speed is another positive and any improvement on the 105 she posted last time out would see her showered in Asters, Cremons and Orchids.

Soul Of An Angel benefitted from the drop in trip following a trainer change this season and posted a career best 103 when winning the Rooney (formerly key prep) for Sapphie Joseph Jr. She looks in a good spot to hit the frame at a decent price for the exotics.

Scylla is an extremely consistent performer around the 94 speed and 97 performance mark – clocked in her last four and therefore probably shouldn’t trouble the likes of Ways And Means and already followed Society home in the Ballerina. She’d need a few to be off their game to get some joy.  Similar can be said for Pleasant, owned by the same connections in Juddmonte, though her ceiling so far is even lower than that of Scylla.

Vahva fluffed her lines in the Ballerina and would otherwise have been the standout contender at least form-wise with the Derby City Distaff (Grade 1) and the Chicago Stakes (Grade 3) booked on her previous two starts. She produced her best at the back end of last year in the Lexus Raven Run Stakes (Grade 2) and will no doubt be in the mix here but she has a few pounds to find on the best that Ways And Means has to offer. Its time for a new filly to command the division in Ways And Means, with Society and Soul Of An Angel close behind.

 

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) 5f

Mouthwatering contest with the clear best from the US in Cogburn taking on the genuine best from Europe in Bradsell and – some would argue – Big Evs.

It’s very hard to knock a horse that comes into the race off the back of three comfortable 2 and 3+ length wins but only one of which has produced figures capable of laying a glove on Bradsell’s standard setting 118 speed and performance figure from the Flying Five at the Curragh. Cogburn’s 117 in the Jaipur admittedly saw him geared down near the line but he had all the momentum from encouragement down the home stretch – as a result he likely deserves a small upgrade to be put on par with the Archie Watson trainee.

Bradsell has taken a bit of damage with the #12 draw – but trainer Archie Watson took solace in the fact that the probable speed of the speed is drawn in #9 (Cogburn) and he could likely clear a nice path in for Bradsell and Big Evs.

The latter hasn’t hit the elite marks with a top 111 speed figure achieved last year at Santa Anita. Its highly likely he will need to produce a marked career best to land this one, while Believing offers more upside at a similar price and she may shock a few with some early speed now blinkers are on.

Motorious is a tier below these and has only really produced figures worth of G2 level at the best this year, while Star Of Mystery has been able to reproduce her Dubai levels on US soil. If you believe the pace will boil over, however, she is taken to close to great effect. The South African raider Isivunguvungu (SAF) will struggle to compete with the best here and we’ll be siding with the class in the race; taking Bradsell over Cogburn given the huge price difference (11/2 vs 6/4) with Star Of Mystery for exotics.

 

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade 1) 1m 1f

The loss of Idiomatic to the breeding sheds has taken the sting out of this years’ Distaff and it will take a career best effort by a fair way for any of the domestic runners to topple odds-on favourite Thorpedo Anna.

Awesome Result is a fair second favourite with a GOAT in Yutaka Take on board, while Raging Sea showed she could take down last year’s queen and is a fair third favourite given the figures of 106 from that day would need to be bettered to take down Thorpedo Anna. The market has it right in this one.

 

Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1) 1m 4f

John Gosden opted to take the path of most resistance with Emily Upjohn opting for the Turf instead of the Filly and Mare Turf which looks wide open. Unfortunately, we are a far cry away from her best form on quick ground, though she revisited close to her previous top-class levels behind Bluestocking last time out on soft. So any translation onto the fast Del Mar surface would see her there or thereabouts.

Far Bridge offers the most consistent level of form from the domestics, posting a pair of 112 performance figures over the distance in his last two starts. That is some way from the 116 ceilings of Jayarebe, Luxembourg and Rebel’s Romance achieved in Europe. Of those three Rebel’s Romance is the more sound betting prospect given Jayarebe is untried over the distance (though he will enjoy the conditions) and hasn’t been at the level in his one G1 try, while Luxembourg hasn’t produced his best on a quicker surface.  

It’s been a long time in between drinks for Shahryar, who’s last win came at Meydan in March 2022 – though despite that his performance level has been good despite the lack of success. Wingspan is not up to it and should probably be at least double the price she is, while Rousham Park also doesn’t have a lot to offer having never tried 12f and is winless this season.

Rebel’s Romance (3/1) to land the spoils.

 

Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1) 1m 2f

A mouthwatering clash with Europe’s best turf horse in City Of Troy (125 best) in unchartered waters on the El Segundo sand of Del Mar. He is not helped by his draw in #3 with Japan’s best globetrotter in Forever Young inside him in #1 and it is set up to find any frailties he may have. The son of Justify has some gate speed for a European horse but nothing compared to his American counterparts such as Mixto next to him in four, Fierceness in nine and Arthur’s Ride out wide.

He is very likely to get a face full of dirt and untested on the surface he is impossible to back at the Coolmore PR machine affected 7/4, when there is equitable talent outside him in Fierceness (125 best) who will get a better trip. Fierceness has thrown in more than City Of Troy’s sole stinker in the 2000 Guineas (he does have one in him), however, and can exhibit some mental frailties when it isn’t going his way. Pletcher reckons those are now remedied and, that said, given the adversity the favourite will face it could be argued it is Fierceness’ race to lose.

The Classic, however, is rarely someone’s race to lose. Sierra Leone (119) possesses the talent to cause an upset if his quirks allow him, while Derma Sotogake (117 best) will be looking to improve on last year’s effort alongside compatriot Ushba Tesoro (118).

It’s set up to be a great race and must watch over a betting race - though if there is to be a bet it would have to be Fierceness, with anything supporting the opposition of City Of Troy with punters are getting a fair bit of value from the over-betting of Aidan O’Brien’s colt market due to an over-hype train likely driven by the desire to promote the bloodlines.

 

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) 1m 3f

An extremely open race now Emily Upjohn’s connections opted to take on the boys. UK raider, Cinderella’s Dream comes into the contest off the back of a career best 105 performance figure in the bag from Saratoga having raced the majority of her summer in the USA. She also has a 104 speed figure over 7f from wintering in Meydan and sets the standard along with Content (106) for the Euro horses.

The Galileo filly was too keen last time out and has done her best work on a faster surface like Del Mar – including in the Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1). Her best figures came at the Curragh when second in the Irish Oaks, where she achieved a positive projection of 110+ on top of a 106 performance figure of which fulfilment should see her top of the lot here.

War Like Goddess leads the way for the domestics on performance figures with 108 last time out at Aqueduct in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes (Grade 1), but the eyecatcher in the betting is without a doubt Didia. The Ignacio Correas IV trainee is 18/1 in the UK and 12/1 on the US ML. She is a Grade 1 with figures par with the main protagonists in the market, most notably when winning the Modesty Stakes last year at Churchill and the New York Stakes at Saratoga this year. She should be shorter in the betting and will be a good play for exotics from a positive draw with fellow domestic Full Count Felisha, who has improved with every start this summer and most recently posted a 106 performance figure when winning the Taylor Stakes (Grade 1) at Woodbine.

Content, however, sets the standard and is taken to edge a competitive race with Didia and Full Count Felisha looking value at double figure odds for the exotics.

 

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Sprint (Grade 1) 6f

Both Raging Torrent and Straight No Chaser come into the race off the back of career best performances with 121 and 119 speed figures in their respective Grade 2 winning preps. Straight No Chaser’s lack of racing begs the question of whether he could back it up twice in a row with somewhat of a bounce factor with shorter rest than he is used to.

Raging Torrent, on the other hand, notched his over seven furlongs and is yet to win a race – let alone a dirt sprint - at this distance. He did, however, land a 5f maiden at the track on debut and his three-year old progressive profile has more upside.

Similarly, the progressive Federal Judge comes into this off the back of a career best wide margin win in the 6f Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes (Grade 2) at Keeneland. He posted a 104 speed figure and a 106 performance figure, however, which is some way below the standard setters (on figures) in this race and his lightly raced profile makes for appeal but not necessarily as favourite. Irad Ortiz Jr. on board is another plus.

He is not the only WinStar Farms runner in the race, with Mullikin having a similarly progressive profile – albeit over 7f lately and there is likely more in the tank off the back of his wide margin victory in the Forego Stakes (Grade 1).

Bentornato has found his form after dropping back to one turn. He comes into this off two good performances and, given his run style he appeals at a big price to be in the shake up for the exotic bets.

Nakatomi hasn’t quite reached the heights of last year’s third placed finish in the race this season and while Wesley Ward knows how to get them ready, he’s short enough for his current level of form.

Finally, Skelly is an extremely consistent performer over this trip but he is fairly exposed and has to prove he can ship to the West coast with the same vigour so others are preferred.

A repetition of his 121 figure would see Raging Torrent well placed to get his head in front at a decent price (9/1) and that ceiling just gives him the edge over Federal Judge and Mullikin despite the potentially tricky draw in #1.

 

Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1) 1m

The withdrawal of Ramatuelle and Diego Velazquez has made this race more straightforward with 2000 Guineas (Group 1) champion Notable Speech and Coronation Stakes (Group 1) winner Porta Fortuna at the head of the market.

Carl Spackler is regarded as the best domestic chance in the race by many, with a recent hat-trick of victories including a pair of Grade 1s in the Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes and the Fourstardave Handicap. He has a bit more on his hands this time round with two top class European horses to beat.

Johannes has more appeal on figures with 114 to his name in the City Of Hope Mile (Grade 2) last time out and a good speed figure in the American Stakes (Grade 3) at Santa Anita which is some 5lb better than his compatriot, so he is preferred over the car park drawn Carl Spackler.

In our minds, this boils down to the two European contenders at the head of the market and Notable Speech (9/4) should take all the beating with a nice draw. His level (115) tops that of Porta Fortuna’s best (111) and a positive projection for higher (118) from his Nassau Stakes (Group 1) win would lead me to believe there is more in the tank. His run style should work well and all being well we should see his lovely turn of foot land him in front down the home stretch with Johannes to feature for the domestics.

 

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) 1m

Speed from the inside with #1 Saudi Crown, #2 T O Saint Denis and #3 Full Serrano should set up nicely for the stalkers and closers to find some joy in this closing contest.

Domestic Product is one of those and comes into this off the back of two career best performances when dropping back in trip to a mile and 7f

Three Technique, Tumbarumba, and Pipeline don’t quite have the performance level to live with the main protagonists and Mufasa faces an uphill battle from stall #12. Seize The Grey comes into the race off the back of a nice prep but the standouts are Skippylongstocking and Muth, with both having a considerably higher ceiling than the majority of the field. The latter, however, comes into this off the back of a poor prep off a short rest and its not out of the question the same happens here given how he is used to running so infrequently.

Therefore, while Domestic Product is a pretty fair favourite – Skippylongstocking appears the value at 15/2 e/w with Irad on board.